Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 334 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9718
(S07E42) produced an M3/1n at 30/0106 UTC. Sympathetic flares were
observed on NOAA/SXI test imagery between Region 9718 and Region
9720 (S18E46). Region 9715 (N05W11) remains magnetically complex
with some small growth and produced three C-class flares. A
disappearing filament occurred just northeast of Region 9715, near
N18E17 at 30/0305 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9715, Region 9718 and Region 9720 have the
potential for producing M-class flares. Region 9715 has the
potential for an X-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A minor transient passed
the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 30/1728 UTC resulting in a 5 nT
deflection in the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1809 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The CME shock from
the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to reach Earth mid day on the
first day, producing active conditions late on day one and into day
two of the period. Minor storm conditions are possible at the
higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Dec a 03 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Nov 226 Previsto 01 Dec-03 Dec 215/220/220 Media de 90 Días 30 Nov 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Nov 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/002 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 012/015-020/030-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Dec a 03 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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