Viendo archivo del miércoles, 28 noviembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 332 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Nov 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05E17) produced a major flare during the period. This impulsive M6/1b event peaked at 28/1635 UTC, and was associated with a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 674 km/s, a Type IV radio sweep, and a 450 pfu tenflare. This event also produced a partial halo CME based on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Other notable flares from this region were an M2/1f flare at 27/2121 UTC and a C7 x-ray flare (optically correlated using SXI imagery) at 28/1543 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 889 km/s. Region 9715 continues to show significant growth as evidenced by a delta configuration magnetic classification that has become evident during the period. Four new regions were numbered today, Regions 9718 (S07E70), 9719 (N03E03), 9720 (S18E72), and 9721 (N10E78).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 22/2320 UTC, ended at 28/2100 UTC (max pfu of 18,900 occurred at 24/0555 UTC).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through most of the forecast period. The partial halo CME from the M6/1b (mentioned in 1A above) is expected to pass late on day three with brief minor storming periods possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Nov a 01 Dec
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%25%
Protón15%20%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Nov 199
  Previsto   29 Nov-01 Dec  205/210/220
  Media de 90 Días        28 Nov 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Nov  001/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  004/005-006/008-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Nov a 01 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%35%
Tormenta Menor01%01%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%40%
Tormenta Menor01%01%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%

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