Viendo archivo del jueves, 22 noviembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 326 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Nov 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest, and most notable, event of the period was a M3/2n flare from Region 9698 (S25W68) at 22/2036 UTC. An associated 630 sfu tenflare and Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 890 km/s) were also observed, and an energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period. This event also produced a greatly enhanced 10cm noon flux observation of 283 sfu, so the morning value of 190 sfu was substituted to better represent the background flux for the period. The source region for this event (Region 9698) is particularly remarkable, after having decayed to its present alpha magnetic configuration (a single Hsx spot, with 110 millionths areal coverage), following ten days on the visible disk without any other optical or x-ray activity observed. Region 9704 (S18W38) also produced an M-class event, a M1/1f flare at 22/1708 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today: 9713 (N08E03) and 9714 (S11E36).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. Region 9704 is expected to remain a principle source of flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. An energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled through November 23, with an increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions expected for November 24 and 25, due to yesterday's and today's CME activity. An energetic proton event is expected to develop within the next few hours due to the flare event described in section 1A above.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Nov a 25 Nov
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Nov 190
  Previsto   23 Nov-25 Nov  175/170/170
  Media de 90 Días        22 Nov 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Nov  002/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  010/010-018/020-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Nov a 25 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%25%30%
Tormenta Menor05%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%35%35%
Tormenta Menor05%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%10%

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