Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9690 (S17W48) produced
several minor C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 14/0924Z.
This region continues to decay in size and has simplified somewhat
in magnetic complexity. A C5 flare was observed on the SW limb at
14/1802Z. Region 9697 (N12E34) produced occasional minor C-class
flares this period, including a C2/1f flare at 14/0102Z. Five new
regions were numbered today: Region 9702 (N22W07), 9703 (N22E12),
9704 (S18E70), 9705 (N14E49), and 9706 (N15E65).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for M-class activity
and an isolated major flare. Region 9697 has a slight chance of
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Nov 217 Previsto 15 Nov-17 Nov 220/220/215 Media de 90 Días 14 Nov 215
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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