Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region
9690 (S18E04) remained the most impressive and active sunspot group
on the disk. It produced occasional flares including two low-level
M-class associated with minor radio emission. This region remained
large and magnetically complex, but showed some signs of decay in
the leader portion of the group. However, a magnetic delta
configuration persisted within its trailer spots. Region 9692
(N06W51) showed an increase in area and magnetic complexity, but
produced no flares. New Regions 9695 (N11E68) and 9696 (S05E68) were
numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9690 is expected to produce M-class
flares. It is also capable of producing a major flare. Region 9692
may produce an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 04/1705 UTC ended at 10/0715 UTC. The
maximum for this event was 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC, making it the
largest greater than 10 MeV proton event of the current sunspot
cycle.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Nov 246 Previsto 11 Nov-13 Nov 245/250/255 Media de 90 Días 10 Nov 212
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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