Viendo archivo de viernes, 9 noviembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 313 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Nov 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Activity remained at high levels due to an abundance of M-class flares (none of which reached major flare criteria). Region 9690 (S18E16) was responsible for most of the M-class flares including the largest of the day: an M3/1n flare at 09/0856 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained the largest and most complex on the disk with an area exceeding 1400 millions of the visible disk. It continued to grow in area and complexity with multiple magnetic delta configurations and strong magnetic field gradients. Region 9687 (S20W31) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 09/1841 UTC associated with weak Type II and IV radio sweeps and minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity with some polarity mixing evident in its leader spots, but showed no significant changes. Region 9692 (N06W39) showed significant growth during the period, but produced no flares. It remained simply-structured. Region 9684 (N06W95) rotated out of view. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Region 9690 may produce a major flare during the period. Region 9687 also provides a slight chance for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continued as it hovered near event threshold during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during most of the period. However, active conditions will be possible during the first two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 10 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Nov a 12 Nov
Clase M90%90%90%
Clase X30%30%30%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Nov 271
  Previsto   10 Nov-12 Nov  260/265/270
  Media de 90 Días        09 Nov 211
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Nov a 12 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

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