Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 noviembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 311 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Nov 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Activity increased to high levels. Region 9690 (S17E45) produced an M5/1n flare at 07/2001 UTC associated with relatively minor centimetric radio bursts. This region showed no significant changes, but remained large and magnetically complex. It also produced numerous flares including three low-level M-class. Region 9684 (N06W68) was stable as it approached the west limb, but remained magnetically complex. Region 9687 (S20W02) also showed a complex magnetic structure, but was quiet during the period. New Regions 9691 (N07E64), 9692 (N07W10), 9693 (N11E03), and 9694 (N14E79) were numbered. Today's Penticton noon 10.7 cm radio flux reading of 269 SFU was flare enhanced. The morning reading of 230 SFU was more reflective of the current state of the Sun.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. There will be a chance for isolated major flare activity from Regions 9684, 9687, and 9690.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels through 07/0600 UTC, then decreased to mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period as CME effects subsided. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began on 04 November ended at 06/2315 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 04 November continued. The polar cap absortion event continued as well.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with brief active intervals possible during the first half of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on 09 November. The polar cap absorption event is expected to end early on 09 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Nov a 10 Nov
Clase M80%80%75%
Clase X25%25%20%
Protón99%90%30%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Nov 269
  Previsto   08 Nov-10 Nov  230/230/220
  Media de 90 Días        07 Nov 208
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Nov  060/112
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  018/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  012/012-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Nov a 10 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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