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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 309 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Nov 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Four M-class events occurred during the period. The largest was an M2/1n flare from Region 9684 (N07W40) at 05/0915 UTC. This region remains the most active region on the visible disk and retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 9687 (S20E20) continues to become more complex, as several of its penless spots have acquired penumbra during the period. It also produced an M1/Sf flare at 05/0250 UTC. New Region 9690 (S18E71) is rotating onto the disk and is already showing high flare potential, having produced a C8.9/Sf event at 05/1808 UTC. It is currently being reported as a 6 spot group with an area of approximately 600 millionths. It will continue to grow in size and spot number as the entire region rotates into view.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high. Region 9684 remains capable of producing another major flare. Regions 9687 and 9690 are also capable of producing M-class events and have a slight chance of producing isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that started on 04 November continued through out the period and flux levels continued to climb, closing out the day at 102 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event also continued to escalate flux levels, closing the period at 17,000 pfu. Both proton events originated from the X1/3b flare from Region 9684, that occurred on 04/1620 UTC. Subsequent flares may have contributed to the continued proton flux increase. A polar cap absorption event remains in progress.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to major storm levels on the first day of the forecast period. A coronal mass ejection (CME) from the X1 event on 04 November is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early on 06 November. Major storming is expected with isolated severe storming possible at higher latitudes. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to minor storming on the second day and quiet to active on the third. However additional CME's may have been produced by several long duration flares that occurred after the X1 event. It is nearly impossible to detect these events as the LASCO imagery has been degraded by the current proton storm. If there are subsequent CME's, the geomagnetic storming could continue into the second and third day of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Nov a 08 Nov
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X25%25%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Nov 235
  Previsto   06 Nov-08 Nov  235/235/235
  Media de 90 Días        05 Nov 207
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  060/075-030/030-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Nov a 08 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor40%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor30%35%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%35%15%

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