Viendo archivo del domingo, 4 noviembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 308 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Nov 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 9684 (N06W27) produced an X1/3b flare beginning at 1603 UTC, maximum at 1620 UTC, and ending at 1647 UTC. The event was accompanied by strong radio bursts, a type II sweep, and a type IV sweep. A CME was observed to enter the C2 field of view during the flare, with the leading edge just visible at 1635 UTC. The front edge moved quickly across C2 and exited somewhere between 1655 UTC and 1705 UTC. Region 9684 has grown and the leader and trailer spots merged during the past 24 hours, making the region a beta-gamma-delta group. Region 9687 (S20E35) continues to be a complex, beta-gamma group and produced a few C-class subflares. Region 9682 (N13W64) is still the largest group on the disk but could only muster a couple of subflares. A 10 degree filament just west of Region 9684 disappeared sometime between 03/2208 UTC and 04/0629 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events are likely to occur during the next three days. There is a fair chance for an additional major flare from Region 9684, especially if new magnetic flux continues to emerge. Regions 9682 and 9687 also continue to pose a slight threat for major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 1650 UTC, shortly after today's X-class flare. Flux levels rose quickly initially, but began to level off around 1800 UTC, although they are still climbing slowly. The maximum 100 MeV flux observed so far is 56 pfu at 2035 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1705 UTC. This event also seems to be leveling off, and the maximum flux observed so far is 1180 pfu at 2040 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active tomorrow. Major storm conditions are likely to follow the arrival of a shock from today's solar event, sometime early on the 2nd day (06 November). The disturbance is expected to last for about 24 hours, and a decrease to mostly active conditions should occur on the third day. Today's greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 12 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should continue tomorrow, and is likely to get an enhancement of flux levels on the second day with the arrival of the interplanetary shock from today's solar event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Nov a 07 Nov
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X25%25%25%
Protón99%80%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Nov 227
  Previsto   05 Nov-07 Nov  220/215/210
  Media de 90 Días        04 Nov 206
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Nov  001/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  007/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  015/015-050/050-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Nov a 07 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%10%20%
Tormenta Menor15%15%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%75%35%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%05%15%
Tormenta Menor15%10%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%80%35%

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