Viendo archivo de miércoles, 24 octubre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 297 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Oct 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6/Sf from Region 9678 (N07E34) at 24/1841 UTC. This region has increased in area (140 millionths), spot count (22) and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 9672 (S19W13) has increased in arial coverage to 490 millionth, increased spot count to 26 and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region has produced minor C-class flares and has the potential for a major flare. Region 9669 (N14W51) also produced minor C-class flares.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of an isolated high level condition. Region 9672 continues to have a good chance of producing a major flare. Region 9678 also has the potential for a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The shock arrival from the two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)) appears to have lower shock velocity than expected. No shock signature was observed from the NASA ACE/EPAM, MAG, SWEPAM instruments as of the time of this forecast issue. Greater than 10 MeV protons were elevated but continued slow decay.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Further analysis of the expected CME shock combined with the lack of shock signature by ground and space based instruments indicates that the shock arrival is expected on day one or even early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to result in active to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions by day three. Greater than 10 MeV protons are expected to remain elevated but continue to decay throughout the period barring a major flare event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Oct a 27 Oct
Clase M80%75%75%
Clase X35%25%25%
Protón25%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Oct 239
  Previsto   25 Oct-27 Oct  225/220/215
  Media de 90 Días        24 Oct 194
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  030/040-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Oct a 27 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%30%20%
Tormenta Menor30%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%30%25%
Tormenta Menor35%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%05%

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