Viendo archivo de martes, 23 octubre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Oct 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. The largest flare for the period was from Region 9672 (N18E00), which produced an M6/1b flare at 23/0223 UTC and an M1/Sn flare at 23/0023 UTC. The magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration appears to have grown stronger since the latest M-class flare occurrence from this region. Multiple C-class flares were observed during the period. Region 9676 (N14E30) produced a C7/1f at 23/0803 UTC and Region 9678 (N07E48) produced several minor C-class flares early in period. Three new regions were numbered today, Region 9678, Region 9679 (S10E58), and Region 9680 (N22E61).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Region 9672 continues to show a strong delta magnetic configuration.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated period (23/0300 to 0600 UTC) of minor storm conditions at USAF planetary. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event at geosynchronous orbit exceeded threshold at 22/1910 UTC, and reached a maximum of 24 pfu at 22/2130 UTC. The event ended at 23/0115 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The M6/2n and the X1/2b flares from Region 9672 (that occurred during the last forecast period) have both produced CME activity on LASCO/EIT imagery. Analysis indicates that both shock arrivals may occur between the early and middle period of day one resulting in storm conditions to occur on day one and two of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Oct a 26 Oct
Clase M80%80%70%
Clase X40%40%25%
Protón30%30%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Oct 226
  Previsto   24 Oct-26 Oct  225/220/220
  Media de 90 Días        23 Oct 193
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Oct  033/066
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  015/017
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  030/040-025/040-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Oct a 26 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%40%30%
Tormenta Menor40%30%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%50%40%
Tormenta Menor50%40%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%01%

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