Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9661
(N14W64) produced an M2/2n flare at 21/1136 UTC with associated
discrete frequency radio bursts. Analysis in white light of this
region also shows a re-emergence of the delta magnetic
configuration. An optically uncorrelated M1 flare was observed at
21/0518 UTC and an associated Type II radio sweep with a shock
velocity of 536 km/s. Using SXI imagery it would appear that this
flare had occurred in Region 9670 (S18E06). Several C-class flares
were produced from Region 9674 (S09E07) during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 9661 and 9670 remain capable of
producing M-class or isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A
strong shock was observed at ACE at 21/1614 UTC. This was followed
by a sudden impulse at 21/1645 UTC (measured as 15 nt on the Boulder
magnetometer). The sudden impulse was followed by minor
(21/1500-1800 UTC) and major (21/1800-2100 UTC) storm levels. BZ
was predominantly negative since the arrival of shock up until the
time of issue of this bulletin.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels. The full halo CME
from the X1/2b flare that occurred at 19/1630 UTC from Region 9661
is expected to arrive on the middle of day one of the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Oct 224 Previsto 22 Oct-24 Oct 225/225/215 Media de 90 Días 21 Oct 191
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 025/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 030/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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