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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9661 (N14W64) produced an M2/2n flare at 21/1136 UTC with associated discrete frequency radio bursts. Analysis in white light of this region also shows a re-emergence of the delta magnetic configuration. An optically uncorrelated M1 flare was observed at 21/0518 UTC and an associated Type II radio sweep with a shock velocity of 536 km/s. Using SXI imagery it would appear that this flare had occurred in Region 9670 (S18E06). Several C-class flares were produced from Region 9674 (S09E07) during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 9661 and 9670 remain capable of producing M-class or isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A strong shock was observed at ACE at 21/1614 UTC. This was followed by a sudden impulse at 21/1645 UTC (measured as 15 nt on the Boulder magnetometer). The sudden impulse was followed by minor (21/1500-1800 UTC) and major (21/1800-2100 UTC) storm levels. BZ was predominantly negative since the arrival of shock up until the time of issue of this bulletin.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels. The full halo CME from the X1/2b flare that occurred at 19/1630 UTC from Region 9661 is expected to arrive on the middle of day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
Clase M75%75%60%
Clase X15%15%10%
Protón15%15%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Oct 224
  Previsto   22 Oct-24 Oct  225/225/215
  Media de 90 Días        21 Oct 191
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  025/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  030/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%15%
Tormenta Menor40%15%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%50%50%
Tormenta Menor50%30%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%01%

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