Viendo archivo de jueves, 18 octubre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 291 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Oct 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The first half of the day produced multiple low level C-class flares that were not optically correlated. At 18/1350 UTC, Region 9658 (S14W48) produced a C6/1n flare and associated radio enhancements. White light analysis of this region shows a slight decay in areal coverage of spots, though it remains a beta-gamma magnetic class group. Region 9661 (N16W23) followed with a C4/Sf flare at 18/1609 UTC and continues to show the potential to produce much more significant activity. This region has shown a small decay in areal coverage of spot group from yesterday, although it still continues to be a large, magnetically complex region. New Region 9672 (S21E69) produced the largest flare of the day, a C8/Sf flare that occurred at 18/1905 UTC. This region may very well be old Region 9632 which currently appears to have not fully rotated onto disk. Two new Regions were numbered today, 9672 and 9673 (N03E73).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There are several regions on the disk that are capable of producing M-class or isolated major flares, the most noteworthy being Region 9661.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through forecast period, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME. High latitudes may experience isolated periods of active conditions during days one and two.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Oct a 21 Oct
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Oct 229
  Previsto   19 Oct-21 Oct  235/240/245
  Media de 90 Días        18 Oct 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/010-005/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Oct a 21 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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