Viendo archivo del martes, 16 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9661 (N16E04)
produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C6/Sf at
16/1926 UTC. This region has continued to grow in areal coverage
and spot count, and also has exhibited greater magnetic complexity
over the last 24 hours. Other minor C-class flares also occurred
throughout the period. A filament centered near S35W34 disappeared
at about 15/2100 UTC, however no associated CME activity was
apparent in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. New Region 9670 (S16E67)
was numbered today, indicating the expected return of old Region
9628/9632 complex. Limb proximity prevents full analysis of the new
region's characteristics.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9661 continues to show the potential
to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
the occurrence of an earth directed CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 207 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 215/215/220 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-008/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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