Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 285 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from a variety of active regions. The largest was a C7/SF at 12/0327
UTC in Region 9661 (N14E55). This region remains the largest sunspot
group presently on the disk with a beta-delta, E-type configuration
and sunspot area of about 800 millionths. The remaining sunspot
groups are relatively small and simple. New Region 9664 (N07E16)
emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9661 is the most likely candidate for an
M-flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels in
the wake of a passing CME. The most active periods occurred early in
the UTC day of the 12th.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Oct 179 Previsto 13 Oct-15 Oct 185/190/195 Media de 90 Días 12 Oct 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct 013/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 028/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 015/020-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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