Viendo archivo del martes, 9 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 282 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9653
(S22E11) produced an M1/2f flare at 09/1113 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 504
km/s. A Type IV radio sweep also accompanied this flare. Earlier in
the period, Region 9657 (N23E58) produced a C7/Sf flare at 09/0741
UTC, which also had an associated Type II sweep with an estimated
shock velocity of 585 km/s. The rest of the day's activity
consisted of minor C-class and optical sub-flares. New Region 9658
(S14E68) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9653 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. High speed
stream effects are believed to be responsible for the elevated field
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through day one due to high
speed coronal hole effects. Active to minor storm conditions are
possible late on day two through day three due to CME effects
associated with the M1/2f at 09/1113 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Oct 176 Previsto 10 Oct-12 Oct 175/175/170 Media de 90 Días 09 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 012/015-015/015-025/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 20% |
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