Viendo archivo del martes, 2 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate with 3 M-class flares and
3 C-class flares. A M1.2/SF occurred in Region 9632 (S21W89) at
01/2340 UTC and a M1.0/SF in Region 9641 (S14E07) at 02/1123 UTC. A
M1.4 occurred with no optical correlation. Two new regions were
numbered today, Region 9647 (S16E31) and Region 9648 (S04E78).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels. Region 9632(S21W89) has major flare
potential for the first day of the period. Region 9636 (N14W41)
remains a beta-Gamma configuration and has M-class flare potential.
Old Region 9608 is due to return on the first day of the period as
Region 9632 rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity reached minor storm level. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux peaked at 2360 PFU 02/0810 UTC. Flux levels
declined over the remainder of the period, but remained at event
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible. Analyst of the CME that occurred at 01/0530 UTC indicates
it was likely a backside event and will have limited impact. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 201 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 205/195/190 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 025/050 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 025/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 015/020-015/040-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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