Viendo archivo del lunes, 1 octubre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z

Solar activity was high today. A long-duration M9 flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628 (S22W91). This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as well as a proton injection. Multiple discrete frequency radio emissions were associated with the event. EIT imagery depicted an excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the X-ray enhancement. Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible disk. Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643 (S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42). All were at least of Beta class magnetic complexity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are probable. The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as it begins to exit the disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels due to a CME passage. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue. At the close of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and increasing. This proton event was in response to the M9 flare mentioned above.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next two days due to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
Clase M75%75%70%
Clase X20%20%10%
Protón15%15%05%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       01 Oct 217
  Previsto   02 Oct-04 Oct  210/205/205
  Media de 90 Días        01 Oct 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  035/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%35%40%
Tormenta Menor25%40%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%25%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor35%35%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%10%

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