Viendo archivo del martes, 25 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 268 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9628 (S18W14) produced
an M7/1n with associated Type II sweep at 0440 UTC. In addition, the
region also generated an M2/1n with Type II at 1027 UTC, and an
M1/Sf at 0148 UTC. This region was the premier flare site of the day
as Region 9632 (S19E06), the site of the X2/2b flare of 24/1038 UTC,
was unproductive. There are fifteen spotted regions visible today,
with new region 9638 (N03E61), the most recent addition.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Both Regions 9628 and 9632 retain the potential
for additional M-class activity, and a possible isolated X-class
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the end of the interval. A
shock, presumably related to the flare/CME of 24/1038 UTC, passed
ACE at approximately 2003 UTC. A sudden impulse then occurred at
Boulder at 2025 UTC, measuring 25 nT. The field is now at active
levels. The proton events at greater than 10 and 100 MeV continue.
The tentative peak flux for the greater than 10 MeV event is 5040
pfu at 2100 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV tentative max was 31 pfu
at 0755 UTC. The Polar Cap Absorption event remains in progress.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at major storm levels during the next 24-36 hours,
due to the effects of a shock/cme related to the X2/2b flare of
24/1038 UTC. The storm should persist through 27 September. The
current proton events are expected to continue for at least the next
24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Sep a 28 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 90% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Sep 275 Previsto 26 Sep-28 Sep 270/265/260 Media de 90 Días 25 Sep 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Sep 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Sep 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 080/100-040/040-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Sep a 28 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 50% | 60% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 25% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 40% | 60% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 40% | 20% |
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