Viewing archive of martes, 25 septiembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 268 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Sep 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9628 (S18W14) produced an M7/1n with associated Type II sweep at 0440 UTC. In addition, the region also generated an M2/1n with Type II at 1027 UTC, and an M1/Sf at 0148 UTC. This region was the premier flare site of the day as Region 9632 (S19E06), the site of the X2/2b flare of 24/1038 UTC, was unproductive. There are fifteen spotted regions visible today, with new region 9638 (N03E61), the most recent addition.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Both Regions 9628 and 9632 retain the potential for additional M-class activity, and a possible isolated X-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the end of the interval. A shock, presumably related to the flare/CME of 24/1038 UTC, passed ACE at approximately 2003 UTC. A sudden impulse then occurred at Boulder at 2025 UTC, measuring 25 nT. The field is now at active levels. The proton events at greater than 10 and 100 MeV continue. The tentative peak flux for the greater than 10 MeV event is 5040 pfu at 2100 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV tentative max was 31 pfu at 0755 UTC. The Polar Cap Absorption event remains in progress.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at major storm levels during the next 24-36 hours, due to the effects of a shock/cme related to the X2/2b flare of 24/1038 UTC. The storm should persist through 27 September. The current proton events are expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Sep a 28 Sep
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X30%30%30%
Protón99%90%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Sep 275
  Previsto   26 Sep-28 Sep  270/265/260
  Media de 90 Días        25 Sep 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Sep  005/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  080/100-040/040-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Sep a 28 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%10%20%
Tormenta Menor25%50%60%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa65%25%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%10%15%
Tormenta Menor25%40%60%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa70%40%20%

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