Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low with numerous C-Class flares.
Region 9628 (S18E64) produced the largest flare of the day, a C7.5
at 19/1845 UTC. This region is the return of old Region 9591, which
produced a major flare during its last rotation. A long duration
C6.7 event occurred at 19/1607 UTC. LASCO/EIT imagery indicated a
partial halo CME originated from Region 9620 (N12E30) at 18/1531 UTC
with a plane of sky speed estimated at 332 km/s. Region 9629
(N26E38) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar forecast is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9628 (S18E64), 9620 (N12E30) and 9616 (S13W24)
all have the potential to produce M-Class flares. Region 9628 also
has a slight possibility of producing a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day, increasing to
unsettled to active levels on the second and third day due to an
expected CME passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 199 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 200/200/195 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 012/010-015/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 04% |
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