Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares
occurred during the period. A long duration C5/Sf was observed from
Region 9608 (S28W44) at 14/1848 UTC. This region has grown slightly
in area and spot count since yesterday and retains its beta-gamma
magnetic classification. Also of interest are Regions 9610 (S14W31)
and 9616 (S10E44), both are magnetically complex and possess a
beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a chance for a major flare from Regions 9608,
9610, and 9616.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock was
observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 14/0120 UTC. This
activity is possibly the result of the DSF activity of 11 September.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
on 16 September as a result of the flares on 12 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 237 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 235/230/225 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 011/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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