Viendo archivo del jueves, 30 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 242 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9591 (S20W33)
produced an M1/2n flare at 30/1757 UTC. This region retains a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification and is showing
imminent signs of producing a possible major flare. Former Region
9600 merged with Region 9601 to produce a beta-gamma-delta group
located at (N14E69). This region produced a M3/Sf with an
accompanying Type II radio sweep (1500 km/s) at 30/2038 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of producing major flares
during the forecast period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. A small
solar wind shock was recorded by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
1330 UTC. This corresponding shock arrival at earth produced a
sudden impulse at the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 30/1413 UTC. This
minor shock produced isolated active conditions at mid and high
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day of the forecast
period with active conditions expected on the second and third day
due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Aug 199 Previsto 31 Aug-02 Sep 205/210/210 Media de 90 Días 30 Aug 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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