Viendo archivo del sábado, 25 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 237 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 9591 (S19E32)
produced several M-class flares and an X5/3b event at 25/1645 UTC.
The event had an associated 8100 sfu tenflare and a Type II and Type
IV radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO images observed a well defined coronal
mass ejection with this event. This region continues to develop and
retains a large Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 9596
(N23E79) was numbered today. The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux
for today may also be slightly enhanced as a result of the earlier
event.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region 9591 producing M-class flares and a
chance for another major flare from this region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active through the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 26 August due to possible
coronal hole affects. Active to minor storm conditions are expected
for 27 and 28 August as a result of the X-class event at 25/1645
UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is also possible on 26
August from the activity today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Aug a 28 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Aug 199 Previsto 26 Aug-28 Aug 190/195/200 Media de 90 Días 25 Aug 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/015-035/035-030/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Aug a 28 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 15% |
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