Viendo archivo del viernes, 24 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 236 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at
24/0913 UTC in Region 9591 (S18E42). This area also produced several
C-class flares throughout the day. The 9591 sunspot group remains an
elongated F-type configuration of about 700 millionths area and
moderate magnetic complexity. Other disk regions were relatively
inactive. New Regions 9594 (N37E05) and 9595 ( N16E27) were
numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with additional M-class flares from Region 9591 and the
possibility of a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active due
to coronal hole effects. A solar energetic proton event at greater
than 10 MeV is possible if 9591 generates a major flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Aug a 27 Aug
| Clase M | 50% | 60% | 70% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Aug 175 Previsto 25 Aug-27 Aug 180/190/200 Media de 90 Días 24 Aug 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Aug 007/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 010/010-015/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Aug a 27 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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