Viendo archivo de miércoles, 22 agosto 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 234 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Aug 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1 X-ray flare peaked at 21/2157 UTC associated with moderate discrete radio bursts and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 740 km/sec). LASCO/EIT images indicated that Region 9591 (S17E63) was the source for this flare. It was also the likely source for an M1 X-ray flare that peaked at 22/1216 UTC. This region also produced occasional, impulsive low- to mid-level C-class flares during the period. Region 9591 continued to rotate into view as the day progressed and is now classed as a moderate-sized F-type spot group. Limb proximity prevented a detailed analysis of this region's magnetic structure, but recent activity suggests at least a moderate degree of magnetic complexity. No remarkable changes occurred in the remaining active regions, including newly numbered Region 9592 (S09W59).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be moderate with a good chance for isolated M-class flares from Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels until 22/0300 UTC, then increased to unsettled to active levels for the remainder of the period. This activity was due to a high-speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative-polarity coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Aug a 25 Aug
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Aug 162
  Previsto   23 Aug-25 Aug  170/175/180
  Media de 90 Días        22 Aug 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Aug  012/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  016/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  015/012-012/010-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Aug a 25 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%30%
Tormenta Menor15%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%25%35%
Tormenta Menor20%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%10%

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