Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 junio 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jun 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9506 (N17E34) produced an M2/2n parallel-ribbon flare at 28/2021 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. It also produced a long-duration C1/Sf flare at 18/0230 UTC. Region 9506 showed signs of penumbral decay in its leader spot and maintained a mixed polarity structure. Region 9503 (N14E07) produced isolated subflares including a C4/Sf at 18/1455 UTC. This region also possessed a mixed polarity structure and showed no significant changes during the period. Region 9502 (S26W08), which produced isolated major flares on 13 and 15 June, gradually decayed and possessed a simple bipolar structure. Today's noon 10.7 cm flux reading of 221 SFU was flare enhanced. The morning reading of 199 SFU was more reflective of prevailing conditions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9503 and 9506 could produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with brief major storm periods detected at high latitudes. This disturbance was due to a CME passage at Earth that began around 18/0100 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on the first day decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jun a 21 Jun
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Jun 221
  Previsto   19 Jun-21 Jun  200/195/195
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jun 173
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  027/029
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  012/015-008/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jun a 21 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%15%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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