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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was high due to an M6/1n flare at 1013 UTC from Region 9502 (S25E32). The event was associated with a CME that was observed to enter the LASCO/C2 field of view at 1031 UTC. The CME was directed mostly to the southeast but a portion of it appeared to cross the solar south pole. Region 9502 is not showing growth, but it does have an east-west inversion line and continues to produce occasional flares. A subsequent impressive CME was observed on the west limb in LASCO/C2 images at beginning at 1648 UTC. There were no obvious disk or x-ray signatures, implying that the CME originated from behind the west limb. Regions 9503 (N15E46) and 9504 (N07E51) are currently the largest sunspot groups on the disk but were quiet and stable. Region 9503 is developing some magnetic complexity. New Region 9507 (N13E26) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9502 and 9503 are the most likely candidates for moderate or higher level activity. There is a slight chance for a major flare event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to slightly active. Solar wind observations suggest that the activity originated from enhanced density and interplanetary magnetic fields during a solar sector boundary crossing. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began today at 1750 UTC. The event appears to have originated from today's behind-the-limb event. The flux levels are rising slowly, with a peak flux as of forecast issue time of 23 PFU.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase to mostly active is expected on the second day in response to possible effects from the partial halo of 14 June as well as possible effects from today's partial halo (associated with the M6 flare). Mostly unsettled levels are expected to prevail on the third day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime around 15/2400 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
Clase M65%65%65%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón99%10%10%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Jun 197
  Previsto   16 Jun-18 Jun  200/200/195
  Media de 90 Días        15 Jun 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  010/010-020/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%35%35%
Tormenta Menor15%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%30%
Tormenta Menor15%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%20%10%

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