Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 junio 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jun 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 165 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jun 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9489 (N20W69) produced today's largest event, a C6/Sf at 0943
UTC. This event was time-associated with a partial halo coronal mass
ejection. There are currently 17 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, and there was an overall growth trend during the day. Growth
was particularly noteworthy in regions 9489 (N20W69), 9495
(N06W46), and 9502 (S26E45). Newly assigned regions 9505 (N22E73 -
Carrington 126) and 9506 (N17E79 - Carrington 120) rotated into view
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Regions 9489 and 9502 are
considered to be the most likely sources for energetic events. There
is a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. An increase
to unsettled to slightly active is possible on the third day in
response to a possible glancing blow from today's CME event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jun 195 Previsto 15 Jun-17 Jun 195/195/200 Media de 90 Días 14 Jun 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 005/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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