Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 mayo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 143 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 May 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class flares
were observed. Region 9463 (N07E04) has doubled in size since
yesterday exceeding 750 millionths of white light areal coverage by
end of period. Despite its size, this region exhibits a fairly
simple beta configuration with no obvious complexity. Region 9468
(N05E39) also doubled in size exceeding 200 millionths with moderate
complexity. Two new regions were numbered today - 9471 (S13W02), and
9472 (N12E61).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
A very isolated chance exists for an M-class flare from Regions 9463
or 9468.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The onset of a high speed
coronal hole stream occurred at approximately 23/0200Z. Solar wind
speed has gradually increased from 300 km/s to 450 km/s;
consequently, unsettled to active conditions were predominant during
the latter half of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active through day one due to high speed
coronal hole flow. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on
days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 May a 26 May
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 May 159 Previsto 24 May-26 May 165/170/170 Media de 90 Días 23 May 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 May 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 May 015/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 015/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 May a 26 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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