Viendo archivo del lunes, 21 mayo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 141 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 May 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C9 flare from Region 9461 (N22W06). A CME was observed from
this flare with most material expelled northward. Region 9463
(N12E31) continues its growth phase and is now an "E" type group in
excess of 500 millionths of white light areal coverage. Three new
regions were numbered today - 9466 (S02E40), 9467 (S05E55), and 9468
(N07E65).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9461 and 9463 have potential
for isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous has been enhanced since the M6 flare
at 20/0603UT, but is slowly returning to background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Active periods are possible on day two and three due to a high speed
coronal hole effects and a possible glancing blow from a CME
observed early on 20 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 May a 24 May
| Clase M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 May 150 Previsto 22 May-24 May 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 21 May 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 May 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 May 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 010/012-015/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 May a 24 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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