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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9455 (S17W52) produced an M1/Sf flare at 16/1042 UTC as well as isolated C-class subflares. Minor development was reported in the interior portion of this region, where a mild mix of polarities has persisted. Region 9454 (N13W08) also displayed a small degree of magnetic complexity, but was stable through the period. Region 9458 (S12W72) produced a C2/Sf flare at 16/1550 UTC as it approached the west limb. This flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep and a CME, which did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 9461 (N16E63), which was the return of old Region 9433 (responsible for major flares during it previous two rotations), was relatively stable during the period. At present it is classed as a simple D-type group, but it is still too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9455. There is also a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9454. At present, it is difficult to gauge the flare potential of Region 9461, given its proximity to the east limb. However, given its rich history of flare production, it cannot be counted out as a source for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 May 138
  Previsto   17 May-19 May  145/150/155
  Media de 90 Días        16 May 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 May  010/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 May  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  012/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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