Viewing archive of martes, 15 mayo 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9455 (S17W38) produced an M1/1n flare at 15/0300 UTC associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps and a CME, which did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 9455 showed no significant changes and maintained a minor degree of magnetic complexity. Minor spot development occurred within Region 9454 (N12E05), which also possessed minor magnetic complexity. New Region 9461 (N15E76) rotated into view. It appeared to be the return of old Region 9433, which produced major flares during its previous two rotations. An impressive eruptive prominence and associated CME occurred from beyond the northeast limb (to the east of new Region 9461) late in the period. A long duration C-class X-ray enhancement was associated with the prominence eruption.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9455 and 9454 appear capable of isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the second half of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 May 142
  Previsto   16 May-18 May  150/160/170
  Media de 90 Días        15 May 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 May  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 May  014/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  012/015-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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