Viendo archivo del domingo, 22 abril 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 112 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Apr 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an M3/1N flare at 22/2044 UTC in Region 9433 (N17E26). The flare was associated with a tenflare of 270 sfu and a weak type II sweep. This Region remains a large F-type sunspot group with mixed spot polarities. Spot growth has resulted in the formation of at least two small delta configurations in the central and leading sunspots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares are likely in Region 9433. The possibility of a major flare is increasing as sunspot growth and magnetic complexity develops.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. This activity is most likely related to the passage of one of the CMEs observed over the northwest limb earlier this week.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels becoming unsettled to active within the next 24 hours. There is a chance of an energetic proton event if a major flare occurs in Region 9433.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Apr a 25 Apr
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Apr 193
  Previsto   23 Apr-25 Apr  205/210/210
  Media de 90 Días        22 Apr 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Apr  007/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  030/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  015/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Apr a 25 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%15%10%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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