Viendo archivo de jueves, 19 abril 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 109 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Apr 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an M2 x-ray flare at 19/1135 UTC. An optical flare report was not received but SOHO/EIT difference images suggest the source was Region 9433 (N17E64), the return of old 9393. All of this region appears to have rotated onto the disk and is presently seen as a moderately-sized (700 millionths) F-type sunspot group with some mixed polarities. This area also produced a few small C-class subflares during the day. Interestingly, a CME was visible entering the SOHO/LASCO/C2 field of view over the northwest limb shortly after the M2 at about 19/1200 UTC. The location suggests that departed Region 9415 was involved with this activity but any connection to the M2 discussed above may only be coincidental. Regions 9434 (N19W23) and 9435 (S21E28) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9433 is expected to continue to produce C-class flares and appears capable of additional M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 100 MeV proton event ended at 19/0325 UTC (start 18/0315 UTC, 12 pfu peak at 18/0600 UTC). The polar cap absorption (PCA) event has also ended (19/1400 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues in progress (start 18/0315 UTC, 321 pfu peak at 18/1045 UTC, and current flux about 15 pfu at 19/2100 UTC) and is slowly decaying.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to drop below event threshold sometime tomorrow (April 20 UTC).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Apr a 22 Apr
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón95%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Apr 145
  Previsto   20 Apr-22 Apr  155/165/175
  Media de 90 Días        19 Apr 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Apr  022/050
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  010/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Apr a 22 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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