Viendo archivo del martes, 17 abril 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 107 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Apr 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. There were several optically uncorrelated C-class events during the period. New Region 9431 (S10E49) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with an isolated chance for a M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started on April 15 is still in progress. The greater than 100 proton event that began at 15/1405 UTC reached a maximum of 146 pfu at 15/1525 UTC and ended at 17/0515 UTC. The polar cap absorption (PCA) event ended at 17/0315 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels and above threshold through the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for April 18 and 19 as a result of possible effects from the X14/2b event on April 15, and possible effects from a well positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return on April 20. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to go below threshold on April 18.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Apr a 20 Apr
Clase M60%50%50%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Apr 126
  Previsto   18 Apr-20 Apr  135/145/155
  Media de 90 Días        17 Apr 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Apr  007/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Apr  008/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Apr a 20 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%40%30%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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