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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 105 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Apr 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9415 (S12W87) produced an X14/2b flare at 15/1350 UTC. This event had an associated Type II, with a speed of 1000 km/s, and Type IV radio sweeps. It was also accompanied by a tenflare of 48000 sfu. A 12 degree filament located at S23W02 disappeared between 14/2054 UTC and 15/1135 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9415 is still capable of producing a major flare before it rotates over the western limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The X-class event described in Part IA produced proton events at greater than 10 and 100 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit which are still in progress. The greater than 100 MeV crossed event threshold at 15/1405 UTC, and so far have reached a peak flux of 146 pfu at 15/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV crossed event threshold at 15/1410 UTC and has reached a peak flux of 951 pfu at 15/1920 UTC. A ground level event was measured on the Thule riometer at 15/1505 UTC, and a polar cap absorption (PCA) event began at 15/1950 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for April 16 and 17. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on April 18 as a result of the X14 mentioned in Part IA above. Effects from a high speed coronal stream may also be expected on April 18. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of the period, and the greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to go below threshold by sometime on April 16.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Apr a 18 Apr
Clase M80%70%60%
Clase X25%10%10%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Apr 134
  Previsto   16 Apr-18 Apr  145/150/160
  Media de 90 Días        15 Apr 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Apr  013/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  015/015-015/020-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Apr a 18 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor05%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%

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