Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9415 (S22W72)
produced an M1/SF event during 14/1715-1828 UTC. Peak x-ray flux
occurred at 14/1811 UTC, after an extended and variable rise in flux
levels. Also observed were an associated Type-II sweep, 150 sfu
tenflare, eruptive prominence and bright surging on the limb.
Imagery from SOHO/LASCO indicated a subsequent CME, however not
appearing earth-directed. Region 9418 (N26W59) also produced a
subfaint flare during the event, and now exhibits some increase in
areal coverage and magnetic complexity. Two new regions were
numbered today: 9428 (N14W39) and 9429 (N09E62).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9415 and 9418 remain potential sources of
isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, primarily
due to lingering effects of the geomagnetic storm that commenced on
13 April. Greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels at 1415 UTC, and remained above threshold
through the end of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase, with major storm levels possible during the
next 24 hours, due to an expected shock arrival from CME activity
observed on 12 April. Storm activity is expected to wane during the
following two days, with quiet to unsettled levels expected by the
end of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| Clase M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Apr 139 Previsto 15 Apr-17 Apr 140/145/150 Media de 90 Días 14 Apr 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 031/036 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 030/040-020/030-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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