Viendo archivo del martes, 10 abril 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 100 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Apr 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 9415 (S23W19) produced a long-duration X2/3b parallel-ribbon flare at 10/0526 UTC. This flare was associated with a 4000 SFU Tenflare, Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 14-degree filament disappearance, and a fast full-halo CME. Region 9415 showed decay in its trailer spots, but maintained a strong magnetic delta configuration in its leader portion, where a minor increase in spots was noted. Minor growth occurred in Region 9417 (S08W39). It produced a C6/Sf at 10/1451 UTC. Minor growth was also observed in Region 9425 (S25W49). The remaining regions were simply-structured and stable. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9415 is expected to produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event followed today's X2/3b flare. It began at 10/0850 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near 100 PFU at the close of the period and gradually increasing. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux enhancement was also associated with the X2/3b flare. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event began around 10/1200 UTC and continued as the period ended. Thus far, maximum absorption associated with the PCA event has been estimated at 8.5 dB. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
A major geomagnetic storm is expected during 11 - 12 April in response to halo-CMEs observed on 09 - 10 April. Active to major storm levels are expected during this disturbance with brief severe storm levels possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 13 April as the storm subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the period. The PCA event is expected to end during the latter half of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Apr a 13 Apr
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X25%25%25%
Protón90%80%25%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 Apr 170
  Previsto   11 Apr-13 Apr  165/165/160
  Media de 90 Días        10 Apr 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 09 Apr  017/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  013/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  050/040-050/090-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Apr a 13 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%35%
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa45%45%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%25%35%
Tormenta Menor30%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%35%15%

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