Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 abril 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 099 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Apr 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9415 (S22W07) produced an M7/2B flare at 09/1534 UTC associated with a 1600 SFU Tenflare, Type II and IV radio sweeps, and a full-halo CME. Region 9415 remained a large, magnetically complex group with a strong, persistent magnetic delta configuration within the large leader spot. The remaining regions were simply-structured and showed no significant changes. New Region 9425 (S25W26) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9415 could produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels as CME effects gradually subsided. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began to rise after today's major flare and was gradually increasing as the period ended. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux enhancement also followed the flare, but did not reach event levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 10 April. The CME associated with today's flare is expected to reach Earth during the early hours of 11 April. Active to major storm levels will be possible during 11 - 12 April as the CME passes Earth. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may increase to event levels early on 10 April.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Apr a 12 Apr
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X25%25%25%
Protón70%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Apr 165
  Previsto   10 Apr-12 Apr  165/160/160
  Media de 90 Días        09 Apr 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Apr  033/041
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  018/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  012/015-030/035-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Apr a 12 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%40%
Tormenta Menor10%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%25%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%20%40%
Tormenta Menor15%35%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%20%10%

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