Viendo archivo del lunes, 2 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 092 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been high. A pair of Class X
flares occurred at 02/1004 UTC and 02/1058 UTC. The first was in
Region 9393, now at N16W69. The second was likely in Region 9393
but it may have been near the southeast limb. A coronal mass
ejection extending 180 degrees in longitude along the west limb
occurred more-or-less in conjunction with the x-ray events. Region
9393 is little changed in appearance as it begins to rotate from
view over the limb although its apparent area is decreasing.
Sunspots have rotated into view at S21E58 (Region 9414) but so far
the spots appear to be simply structured. As the region becomes
more visible, further information about its structure will be
available.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. The possibility of major flares remains high in
Region 9393.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly active. A very small proton
enhancement of >10 MeV and >100 MeV particles occurred beginning at
about 02/1000 UTC. Fluxes have become constant at less than event
thresholds.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
possibility remains of a proton event if further major events occur
in Region 9393
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Apr a 05 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Apr 228 Previsto 03 Apr-05 Apr 220/210/200 Media de 90 Días 02 Apr 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Apr 026/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Apr 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 030/025-035/040-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Apr a 05 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 28% | 28% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 18% | 15% | 12% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 08% | 08% | 08% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Tormenta Menor | 18% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 08% | 08% | 08% |
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