Viendo archivo del sábado, 31 marzo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Mar 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 090 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Mar 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate with the only
significant activity a Class M event in Region 9393 (N17 W43) at
31/1100 UT. Active Region 9393 remains as threatening as before.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high with continued expectation of another major flare
in Region 9393.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at severe storm levels. A shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at 31/0023 UT and subsequently reached
Earth's magnetic field at 31/0051. The storm developed after that
time and reached maximum intensity after 31/0900 UT. It has
continued into the later hours of the UT days. Dynamic auroral
displays were reported across the United States with especially
dynamic displays reported in Arizona, west Texas and California.
The solar proton event that began at 29/1000 UT was declared over at
01/0600 UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic storm in
progress is expected to continue into tomorrow before declining to
less disturbed levels
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Apr a 03 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Mar 246 Previsto 01 Apr-03 Apr 240/230/220 Media de 90 Días 31 Mar 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Mar 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Mar 140/150 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 065/070-030/035-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Apr a 03 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 12% |
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