Viendo archivo del miércoles, 28 marzo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Mar 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 087 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Mar 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9393 (N13E00) once
again produced the most activity with four M-class events during the
period. The first was an M1/Sf at 28/0158Z, the second was an M1/Sn
at 28/0947Z, the third was an M4/Sf at 28/1240Z and the fourth was
an M1/1f at 28/1909Z. Regions 9403 (S13E36) and 9397 (S09E19)
produced upper C-class level events. Region 9393 continued growing
and currently covers an area of over 2200 millionths in white light.
The region is also maintaining a very complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Four new regions were numbered today,
Region 9405 (S13W20), Region 9406 (N25E67), 9407 (N11E64), and 9408
(S08E38).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a
major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm. Minor to major storm
conditions were observed from 28/0900Z to 28/1500Z. An
earth-directed full halo CME was seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery. The
halo occurred at approximately 28/1300Z and was associated with the
M4/Sf event in Region 9393.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with possible
isolated active conditions on the first day. Conditions are
expected to increase during the middle of the period reaching minor
to major storm levels due to a CME passage. Conditions are expected
to decrease towards the end of the period to unsettled to active
levels. There is the possiblilty for a proton event if Region 9393
produces a major flare event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Mar a 31 Mar
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Mar 274 Previsto 29 Mar-31 Mar 270/265/255 Media de 90 Días 28 Mar 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Mar 016/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Mar 024/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 014/015-030/030-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Mar a 31 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 25% | 20% |
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