Viendo archivo del martes, 27 marzo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Mar 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 086 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Mar 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9401 (N22E30)
produced an impulsive M2/1N event at 27/1630Z. This event had an
associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 500 km/s. Region
9393 (N17E11) grew significantly in area overnight and maintains a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration; however, the region
has only produced C-class X-ray events during the period. Several
other C-class events occurred from Regions 9390 (N14W22), and 9402
(N14W11). New Region 9404 (S06E66) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a
major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active. Two different
shocks were observed on the ACE spacecraft. The first shock
occurred at 27/0108Z with an associated sudden impulse of 27 nT on
the Boulder magnetometer at 27/0145Z. This activity was believed to
be associated with the CME back on 24 March. The second shock
occurred at 27/1718Z with an associated sudden impulse of 10 nT
observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 27/1745Z. The second shock
was believed to be associated with the halo CME on 25 March. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchonous orbit was enhanced
during the period, but stayed below event threshold with an observed
maximum of approximately 6 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to minor storm conditions
with isolated major storm conditions possible during the first day
of the period. This possible increase in activity is due to the
faint full halo CME seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery on 25 March at
approximately 1700Z. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to
predominately quiet to unsettled conditions the rest of the period
with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Mar a 30 Mar
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Mar 273 Previsto 28 Mar-30 Mar 235/240/240 Media de 90 Días 27 Mar 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Mar 002/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 020/025-015/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Mar a 30 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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