Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 enero 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 024 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jan 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate during the past 24
hours. An increase in flare production and x-ray background began
yesterday around 1800Z, leading to frequent C-class flares and one
M-class flare during the past 24 hours. Today's largest event was an
M1/2f at 1447Z from Region 9311 (N06W76). Most of the new activity
was from Region 9311 although Region 9313 (S07W12) and Region 9321
(S06E31) also contributed to some of the activity. Regions 9313 and
9321 appear to be growing slowly.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate tomorrow, with a fair-to-good chance for another M-class
event from Region 9311. A decrease in activity and background
levels is anticipated on the second and third days, however,
with the departure of Region 9311 from the solar disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours. There was a minor storm period at high latitudes from
1200-1500Z. Solar wind signatures showed characteristics of swept up
flow, and perhaps a portion of transient flow, but there was no
indication of passing through the main part of the driver. Greater
than 10 MeV protons remained enhanced but were beginning to decline
near day's end.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24
hours. A decrease to mostly unsettled is expected for the second and
third days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jan a 27 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 40% | 20% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Jan Previsto 25 Jan-27 Jan 175/170/165 Media de 90 Días 24 Jan 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jan 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Jan 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jan a 27 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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