Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 noviembre 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 322 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Nov 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9231 (S24E19) produced isolated C-class subflares. It stabilized as a medium-sized F-type group with moderate magnetic complexity. Region 9235 (N14E51) also produced isolated C-class subflares. A 32-degree filament erupted from the southwest quadrant beginning around 17/0700 UTC. A CME was associated with the eruption, but it was not Earth-directed. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce isolated M-class flares during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest of the period due to coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Nov a 20 Nov
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Nov 163
  Previsto   18 Nov-20 Nov  160/160/165
  Media de 90 Días        17 Nov 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Nov  001/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  010/010-015/020-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Nov a 20 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%35%30%
Tormenta Menor05%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%40%35%
Tormenta Menor05%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%05%

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