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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Nov 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An M7 X-ray flare occurred at 08/2328 UTC. Regions 9218 (N20W72), 9213 (N04W92), and 9212 (N10W86) produced optical flares during the M7, thereby making a single-point source determination difficult. This event was accompanied by a halo CME, Type IV radio sweep, and a 710 sfu Tenflare. Optically uncorrelated M1 X-ray flares occurred at 09/0314 UTC and 09/0610 UTC. Region 9221 (S14E06) produced an M1/Sf flare at 09/1613 UTC associated with an 8-degree filament disappearance. New Region 9228 (N20E29) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares will be possible during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions occurred during the 09/1500 - 1800 UTC period. Proton events at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV were associated with the M7 flare mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 08/2355 UTC and reached a maximum of 347 pfu at 09/0350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event began at 08/2350 UTC and reached a (preliminary) peak of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600 UTC. The proton event was in progress as the period ended. A polar cap absorption event was associated with the proton event. Peak absorption was estimated to be 33 dB at 09/1640 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels during the first day. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels during the remainder of the period due to an expected CME passage associated with the M7 event mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end during the first day, but the greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the period. The polar cap absortion event is expected to continue through the period as well.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Nov a 12 Nov
Clase M50%45%40%
Clase X10%10%05%
Protón99%99%90%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Nov 166
  Previsto   10 Nov-12 Nov  160/155/150
  Media de 90 Días        09 Nov 173
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Nov  014/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/015-030/050-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Nov a 12 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%40%
Tormenta Menor10%40%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%25%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%20%40%
Tormenta Menor15%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%40%20%

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