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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Oct 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9182 (N04W90) produced an M1/Sf flare at 14/0840 UTC, as well as several C-class subfaint flares. Region 9194 (S12E36) exhibited some increased activity today, also producing several C-class subfaint flares. Single flares of similar magnitude were noted from a few other regions, including newly numbered Region 9198 (S30E65).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to become predominantly low, with the departure of Region 9182 behind the western limb. A chance of isolated moderate-level activity remains for regions 9194, 9193 (N05W46), and for new regions expected on the eastern limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm levels, due to a prolonged period of negative Bz accompanied by moderate solar wind speed. Greatest activity occurred during 14/0900-1800 UTC, which saw two periods of storming at minor levels in middle latitudes, and at major levels in higher latitudes. Possible sources of this activity include extended effects of the 09 October CME passage, which commenced yesterday, or trailing effects from a weaker LDE C-flare that occurred about 30 hours after the CME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to ease to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods. The current geomagnetic disturbance is expected to end during day one, and an onset of high speed stream effects from a coronal hole is expected to emerge thereafter, persisting through day two and tapering off during day three. Isolated minor storming at higher latitudes is possible during this period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Oct a 17 Oct
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Oct 163
  Previsto   15 Oct-17 Oct  175/185/195
  Media de 90 Días        14 Oct 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Oct  022/027
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  028/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  018/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Oct a 17 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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