Viendo archivo de jueves, 12 octubre 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 286 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1 X-ray flare occurred at 12/2049 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The source of the flare appeared to be Region 9182 (N06W66). Activity was at low levels prior to this flare with isolated, low-level C-class flares from Region 9182. Region 9182 continued to show a slight mixing of polarities in the vicinity of its leader spots, but no further development was evident. Minor growth was noted in Regions 9190 (S18E20) and 9192 (S13W12). Both regions were small and simply structured. Four new regions were numbered today: 9194 (S13E60), 9195 (N14W70), 9196 (S31W45), and 9197 (N26E70).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9182 may produce additional isolated M-class flares. Chances for M-class flare activity are expected to increase beginning 14 October due to the return of old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The CME from the long-duration C6/1F flare of 09 October is now expected to arrive by early 13 October followed by active to major storm conditions. Activity is expected to decline to unsettled to active levels on 14 October as the CME effects subside. There will be a slight chance for high flux levels at greater than 2 MeV late in the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
Clase M30%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Oct 163
  Previsto   13 Oct-15 Oct  170/180/195
  Media de 90 Días        12 Oct 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct  013/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  008/011
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  035/035-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%25%
Tormenta Menor40%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%30%
Tormenta Menor40%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%01%01%

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