Viendo archivo de sábado, 16 septiembre 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 260 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 SEP 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9165 (N13W14) PRODUCED AN M5/2B AT 16/0426 UTC. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS AND AN 1100 SFU RADIO BURST AT 2695 MHZ. IN ADDITION, THE LASCO INSTRUMENT ON THE SOHO SPACECRAFT OBSERVED AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME FOLLOWING THIS FLARE. REGION 9165 ALSO PRODUCED AN M3/2N AT 16/1428 UTC AS WELL AS SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX ON THE VISIBLE DISK BUT HAS SHOWN SOME PENUMBRAL DECAY AND MAGNETIC SIMPLIFICATION SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9166 (S14E50) CONTINUED TO GENERATE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION HAS UNDERGONE SOME GROWTH IN SPOT AREA AND NUMBER SINCE YESTERDAY. NEW REGION 9167 (N12E80) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9165 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR ENERGETIC FLARE ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE BZ COMPONENT OF THE IMF HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 0 AND -10NT FOR ABOUT THE LAST 24 HOURS WHILE WIND SPEED HAS BEEN BELOW 400 KM/S AND DENSITY ABOUT 10 P/CC. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT DROPPED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD (10 PFU) AT 15/2140 UTC. CURRENT FLUX AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV REMAINS ENHANCED AT ABOUT 5 PFU BUT IS DROPPING SLOWLY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STORM CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO THE M5/2B FLARE AND RELATED CME THAT OCCURRED EARLY ON SEP 16.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 SEP a 19 SEP
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 SEP 175
  Previsto   17 SEP-19 SEP  180/185/185
  Media de 90 Días        16 SEP 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  015/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  015/015-015/012-040/040
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 SEP a 19 SEP
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%50%
Tormenta Menor15%15%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%50%
Tormenta Menor15%15%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%15%

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