Viendo archivo del domingo, 13 agosto 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Aug 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 AUG 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4/SF AT 1348Z FROM REGION 9125 (N25E29).
THIS GROUP IS THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE THIRTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS
VISIBLE, SHOWING SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS WELL AS AN EXPANSE OF
BRIGHT PLAGE. PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED AT THE NW LIMB MUCH
OF THE INTERVAL. NEW REGIONS 9130 (S23W13) AND 9131 (N13W71) WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS EARLY,
THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AFTER 0600Z. THE MAJOR STORM OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS SUBSIDED AS THE SOLAR WIND CALMED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS MAY STILL SEE SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 AUG a 16 AUG
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 AUG 186 Previsto 14 AUG-16 AUG 190/190/185 Media de 90 Días 13 AUG 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG 055/109 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG 012/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG 010/015-010/015-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 AUG a 16 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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